Lemonade Stand: Episode, Aug 5, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (August 5)
Markets
10 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 82%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 77%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Think | Yes | 77%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Time | Yes | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 68%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 55%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prediction | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blue | No | 64%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-august-5-20260731210500895 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP