Will “Collateral” be said on Lemonade Stand next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Collateral” was said on Lemonade Stand in 1 of 11 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (9%), most recently on Jul 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lemonade Stand
Collateral
- Probability
- 20% · n=11
- Settled
- 1/11 (9%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Collateral |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 13, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 6, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Collateral | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Collateral” said on Lemonade Stand?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Collateral” was said on Lemonade Stand in 1 of 11 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (9%), most recently on Jul 1, 2026.
- What is the probability “Collateral” is said on Lemonade Stand next time?
- 20%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: ‘Collateral’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand/words/collateral (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lemonade-stand&word=collateral · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lemonade-stand&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP