Will “Federal Reserve” be said on Lemonade Stand next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Federal Reserve” was not said on Lemonade Stand in any of the 5 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 24% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lemonade Stand
Federal Reserve
- Probability
- 24% · n=5
- Settled
- 0/5 (0%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…National Guard in Chicago, attempting to bar counting ballots after election day, Federal Reserve governor firing, and most importantly, tariffs, as well as it lists…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Federal Reserve |  Polymarket | No |
| May 20, 2026 | Federal Reserve | Polymarket | No |
| May 13, 2026 | Federal Reserve | Polymarket | No |
| May 6, 2026 | Federal Reserve | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often is “Federal Reserve” said on Lemonade Stand?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Federal Reserve” was not said on Lemonade Stand in any of the 5 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Federal Reserve” is said on Lemonade Stand next time?
- 24%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: ‘Federal Reserve’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand/words/federal-reserve (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lemonade-stand&word=federal%20reserve · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lemonade-stand&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP