Will “Actually” be said on Lemonade Stand next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Actually” was said on Lemonade Stand in 10 of 10 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 90% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 8.
- Last 10
- 10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 10 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lemonade Stand
Actually
- Probability
- 90% · n=10
- Settled
- 10/10 (100%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
33 counted.
…you contextualize this with the grand demand for diesel fuel, this is actually not that much that the U S is important. This deal is…
…that over this last week, week or two weeks, Germany, uh, like actually published their plan to fully phase out fossil fuels by 2045. So…
Counts: anyone
26 counted.
…some degree of political ads that are riling up right now. And I thought that there were two very interesting ones that I actually happened.
…insults him all the time to his face. It's so funny. He actually cannot talk about him without insulting his appearance. He calls him ugly…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Actually |  Polymarket | Yes | 33 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | 26 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Actually | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Actually” said on Lemonade Stand?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Actually” was said on Lemonade Stand in 10 of 10 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “Actually” is said on Lemonade Stand next time?
- 90%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: ‘Actually’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand/words/actually (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lemonade-stand&word=actually · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lemonade-stand&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP