ABC World News Tonight, October 6, 2026
On the Oct 6, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 6 of the 14 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 34%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 65%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Pneumonic / Plague | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| CIA / Central Intelligence Agency | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dubai / Tel Aviv | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fairford | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fort Hood | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mail-In / Mail In | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sinkhole | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Paramount / Warner Bros / Skydance | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
Tonight, breaking news, the U.S. pressuring Russia for more information after the death of a young lab worker. And tonight, just in here, what the…
…The White House now defending President Trump after what he said about Iran, the nuclear threat, and suggesting Iran could take out Los Angeles and…
…U.S. citizens in Russia, especially outside Moscow. That warning coming as President Trump says he'll speak soon with President Putin, the U.S. stepping up pressure…
…now defending President Trump tonight after what he said about Iran, the nuclear threat, and suggesting Iran could, quote, take out Los Angeles and San…
…authorities claimed the death of a young lab worker was caused by severe pneumonia, not plague. But questions are swirling over what got her sick.
…live at the White House. Thanks, Mary. Tonight, a former high ranking CIA officer pleading guilty now. Federal agents finding $40 million worth of gold…
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