ABC World News Tonight, October 1, 2026
On the Oct 1, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 4 of the 14 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 66%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Dubai / Tel Aviv | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Helicopter | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hurricane / Polo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iraq | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pardon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Reflecting Pool / Ballroom | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SpaceX / NASA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…we saw that harrowing new video showing the chaos on board the plane, President Trump asked today if the suspect may be linked to Iran.
…new and disturbing video showing the moments right after that pilot of a passenger plane was stabbed by his co-pilot while flying to Tel Aviv.
…rescues at Lee Goldberg is standing by with the forecast. Tonight, the deadly crash of a medical helicopter off the U.S. right into the ocean.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-10-01:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-10-01:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP