Will Donald Trump say “My Father / Fred”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “My Father / Fred” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
My Father / Fred
- Probability
- 36% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…would do because I'm very I was always high-end. I always get my father said that kid has the greatest eye for location. So I…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | My Father / Fred |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 26, 2026 | My Father / Fred | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “My Father / Fred”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “My Father / Fred” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “My Father / Fred” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘My Father / Fred’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fred-or-my-father (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fred%20%2F%20my%20father · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP