# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-09-13 (settled) · 34 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26SEP14 · as_of 2026-10-25T00:55:02Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-13 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-10..2026-09-12 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26SEP14 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after September 7, 2026 at 8:00pm ET and before Sep 14, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 16 of 18 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T15:20:02Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-30 of 34 by p · more: offset=30 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	111	83	0.75	nYYYYYYYYY	8	1	0.86	4	4	yes	1	
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	9	7	0.78	nnYYYYYYY	8	2	0.81	12	12	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	224	124	0.55	YnYYYYYnnY	8	1	0.77	9	9	yes	1	
Ballroom	ballroom	111	48	0.43	nYYYYYYYYn	8	0	0.77	11	14	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	46	23	0.5	YYYnYYYYnn	8	1	0.75	2	2	yes	1	
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	15	10	0.67	nnYnYYYYYY	8	2	0.74	15	16	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	57	37	0.65	YYYnnnnYYn	8	0	0.72	5	5	yes	1	
Ukraine	ukraine	93	50	0.54	YYnnYYYYnn	8	0	0.72	5	7	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	166	97	0.58	nnnnnnnYYn	8	0	0.7	2	2	yes	1	
Melania	melania	76	48	0.63	YYYnYnYYYY	8	0	0.68	1	3	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	42	28	0.67	YYYYYnYYnY	8	0	0.66	2	2	yes	1	
Fraud	fraud	91	37	0.41	YnYnnnYYnY	8	1	0.66	4	4	yes	1	
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	53	34	0.64	nYYYnYYnnY	8	0	0.64	0	0	no		1
Moon	moon	27	12	0.44	nnnnnnnYYY	8	0	0.6	0	0	no		1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	46	31	0.67	nYYYYYnnnn	8	1	0.58	1	1	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	66	29	0.44	YYYnYnYnnn	8	0	0.56	1	2	yes	1	
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	26	12	0.46	nYnnnYYnYn	8	0	0.5	0	0	no		1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	60	34	0.57	nnnnYnYnnn	8	0	0.46	0	0	no		1
Greenland	greenland	57	21	0.37	nYnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.42	0	0	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	35	10	0.29	nnYYnYnnnn	8	0	0.39	0	1	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	492	54	0.11	nnnnYnnnnn	8	0	0.39	0	0	no		1
Third Term	third term	15	4	0.27	YnnnnYnYnn	8	0	0.37	0	0	no		1
Antifa	antifa	21	3	0.14	nnnnnnnnYn	8	0	0.36	0	0	no		1
Soleimani	soleimani	16	6	0.38	nnnYnnYnnn	8	0	0.33	0	0	no		1
Epstein	epstein	133	30	0.23	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.31	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	28	7	0.25	nnnYYnnnnY	8	0	0.28	1	1	yes	1	
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	8	1	0.12	nYnnnnnn	8	0	0.28	0	0	no		1
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	32	9	0.28	nnYnnnnnnn	8	0	0.22	0	0	no		1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	20	2	0.1	nnnnnnnYnn	8	0	0.2	0	0	no		1
Golden Dome	golden dome	51	8	0.16	nYYYnnnnnn	8	0	0.18	0	0	no		1