Will Donald Trump say “NIL”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NIL” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 23, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
36%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
NIL
- Probability
- 36% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “NIL”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NIL” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 23, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “NIL” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘NIL’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nil (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP