Will Donald Trump say “Oval Office”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Oval Office” at 8 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 15, 2026 (89%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 8/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Oval Office
- Probability
- 56% · n=9
- Settled
- 8/9 (89%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…out to eat. Every day I come into the office and the oval office and somebody, some young person, guys, girls, young people, they'd say…
…the White House is so beautiful now. So beautiful. Fixed up the Oval Office, made it beautiful. It was dingy, but it was still the…
…all said it can't be done. And the generals came into the Oval Office. Three very handsome men, beautiful. I mean, like they're like movie…
…deal two years ago when we had our little chat in the Oval Office. We had a now quite well-remembered chat with JD, myself, some…
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Oval Office |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Oval Office |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| May 11, 2026 | Oval Office | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 11, 2026 | Oval Office | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Oval Office | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Oval Office | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Oval Office | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Oval Office | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Oval Office | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Oval Office”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Oval Office” at 8 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 15, 2026 (89%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Oval Office” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Oval Office’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/oval-office (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=oval%20office · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP