Will Donald Trump say “Invade / Invasion”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Invade / Invasion” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Invade / Invasion
- Probability
- 40% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…our great Vice President J. Vance. And we will pass the No Invasion of Our Country Act, prohibiting any future president from ever opening our…
…pour across our borders from all over the world. It was an invasion. That was like a military invasion. And if they win the midterms,
…Before I took office, the Democrat inflation disaster and the Biden migrant invasion. It was literally an invasion of our country. pushed the dream of…
…could see across the waters of New York Harbor to a British invasion fleet more than 100 ships strong, which had just arrived to crush…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Invade / Invasion |  Kalshi | No |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Invade / Invasion |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Invade / Invasion”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Invade / Invasion” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Invade / Invasion” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Invade / Invasion’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/invade-or-invasion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=invade%20%2F%20invasion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP