# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · presser 2026-01-03 · 42 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN03 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-his-venezuela-press-conference-today-978 · as_of 2026-10-25T17:55:58Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-01-03 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN03 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of news conference at Mar-a-Lago (originally scheduled for 11 a.m. ET), then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-his-venezuela-press-conference-today-978 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the conference on January 3, 2026.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	141	105	0.74	YnYYYYnnYY	0.66	hist	yes
Drug	drug	1	K	26	19	0.73	YYYYYYYYYY	0.6	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	P	101	69	0.68	YnYYYnYnnY	0.59	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	74	47	0.64	YYYnnYYnYY	0.57	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	P	27	17	0.63	nYYYYnYYYY	0.55	hist	yes
China	china	1	KP	94	61	0.65	nnnnnYnYnn	0.51	hist	yes
Border	border	1	K	84	49	0.58	YYYYnYYnnn	0.49	hist	yes
CIA / FBI	cia|fbi	1	P	0	0			0.47	hist	no
Russia	russia	1	KP	50	28	0.56	nYnnYYnYnY	0.42	hist	yes
Hell	hell	1	P	19	8	0.42	YnnYYnnnnY	0.41	hist	yes
War	war	1	K	6	4	0.67	YnnYYY	0.4	hist	yes
Border 5+ times	border#5	5	P	15	9	0.6	YnYnnYYYnn	0.4	hist	no
Florida / Mar-a-Lago	florida|mar a lago	1	K	0	0			0.4	hist	yes
Maria / Corina / Machado	corina|machado|maria	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.39	hist	no
Minnesota	minnesota	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.39	hist	no
Communist / Communism 3+ times	communism|communist#3	3	P	0	0			0.38	hist	no
Cuba	cuba	1	KP	0	0			0.37	hist	yes
Terrorist / Narcoterrorist	narcoterrorist|terrorist	1	K	0	0			0.37	hist	yes
Wife	wife	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.36	hist	yes
Peace Through Strength	peace through strength	1	K	5	2	0.4	YnnnY	0.36	hist	no
Boat	boat	1	K	0	0			0.35	hist	yes
Fentanyl	fentanyl	1	KP	24	6	0.25	nnnnnYYYnn	0.33	hist	no
Invade / Invasion	invade|invasion	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
Pete / Hegseth	hegseth|pete	1	K	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.32	hist	yes
Dictator	dictator	1	K	5	1	0.2	nnnYn	0.32	hist	yes
Congress	congress	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.32	hist	yes
Machado	machado	1	K	0	0			0.32	hist	no
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	1	K	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.31	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	KP	31	10	0.32	YnnnnYnYnn	0.3	hist	yes
Cartel	cartel	1	K	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.29	hist	yes
Nobel	nobel	1	K	16	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	221	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.14	hist	no
Cilia / Flores	cilia|flore	1	P	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Cocaine 5+ times	cocaine#5	5	P	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Dictator 3+ times	dictator#3	3	P	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
F-35 / Drone / Helicopter 5+ times	drone|f 35|helicopter#5	5	P	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Maduro 10+ times	maduro#10	10	P	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Venezuela 10+ times	venezuela#10	10	P	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Arrest / Arrested	arrest|arrested	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Delta	delta	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Helicopter	helicopter	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Regime	regime	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes