Will Donald Trump say “Arrest / Arrested”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Arrest / Arrested” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 3, 2026.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Arrest / Arrested
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…sinister. It's a terrible situation. And we've engaged with international partners to arrest hundreds of foreign scammers of all types, including scam call centers. Our…
…of Nick's work, since I took office, 115 Minnesota fraudsters have been arrested and charged. And by the way, the governor is 100 percent guilty.…
…military base, one that was supposed to be flawless against attack, and arrested the outlaw dictator, real criminal Nicolas Maduro. Since that day, hundreds of…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Arrest / Arrested |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Arrest / Arrested”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Arrest / Arrested” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Arrest / Arrested” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Arrest / Arrested’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/arrest-or-arrested (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=arrest%20%2F%20arrested · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP