# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · tv_episode 2026-04-26 · 37 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR26 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:47:10Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-26 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 tv episode transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR26 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of 60 Minutes , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	231	159	0.69	YnYnYYYnnY	1	1	0.64	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	124	83	0.67	nnYnYYYYnn	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	132	86	0.65	nnnYYYYYYn	1	1	0.63	hist	no
Melania	melania	46	30	0.65	YYYYYYnYnY	1	0	0.6	hist	no
Election	election	82	50	0.61	nYYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.55	hist	no
Thug	thug	29	20	0.69	YnnYYYYYYn	1	0	0.54	hist	no
Border	border	102	63	0.62	YnYYnYYYYn	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Mental Institution	mental institution	25	18	0.72	nnYYnnYYnn	1	1	0.52	hist	no
250	250	14	10	0.71	YYnnnYYYYY	1	1	0.52	hist	no
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	29	17	0.59	nnYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.51	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	63	35	0.56	YYYYYYnYnY	1	1	0.51	hist	no
China	china	144	91	0.63	YYYnnnYnnY	1	1	0.5	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	25	15	0.6	YnYnYYYnnY	1	1	0.48	hist	no
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	53	34	0.64	YnYnYnnnYn	1	1	0.47	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	92	51	0.55	YnnYnYYYYn	1	1	0.47	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	64	30	0.47	nnYYnnYnYY	1	1	0.43	hist	no
California	california	8	4	0.5	YnnnnYYY	1	1	0.42	hist	no
ICE / DHS	dhs|ice	0	0			1	1	0.42	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	204	107	0.52	YnnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Blockade	blockade	6	3	0.5	nnYYnY	1	0	0.41	hist	no
Drone	drone	42	11	0.26	YYYYYnYYnn	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	9	4	0.44	nYnnYYnYn	1	0	0.38	hist	no
Free Speech / Freedom of Speech	free speech|freedom of speech	0	0			1	1	0.38	hist	no
King	king	13	6	0.46	nYnYnnYnYn	1	0	0.36	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	130	51	0.39	YnnnnnnnYn	1	1	0.34	hist	no
Butler	butler	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.33	hist	no
JD / Vance	jd|vance	6	2	0.33	YnnnYn	1	0	0.32	hist	no
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	7	2	0.29	nnYnnYn	1	1	0.32	hist	yes
Secret Service	secret service	7	5	0.71	YnYYYYn	1	1	0.31	hist	yes
Save America Act 	save america act	7	2	0.29	YYnnnnn	1	0	0.31	hist	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.31	hist	no
Lincoln	lincoln	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.3	hist	no
Fight Fight Fight	fight fight fight	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.3	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	51	14	0.27	YYnnnnnYnn	1	0	0.29	hist	yes
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	344	36	0.1	Ynnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.15	hist	no
Reschedule / Rescheduled	reschedule|rescheduled	0	0			1	0	0.34	prior	no
Unify / Unified	unified|unify	0	0			1	0	0.34	prior	no