Will Donald Trump say “COVID”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “COVID” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 24, 2024 (40%), most recently on Feb 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
COVID
- Probability
- 35% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | COVID |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Covid |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 4, 2025 | COVID | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 18, 2025 | COVID | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | COVID | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 24, 2024 | COVID | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “COVID”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “COVID” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 24, 2024 (40%), most recently on Feb 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “COVID” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘COVID’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/covid (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=covid · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP