Donald Trump: Keynote, Mar 20, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say at the Digital Asset Summit on Thursday?
Markets
20 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Strategic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial intelligence | Yes | 38%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | No | 55%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 5+ times | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million 10+ times | No | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Mandate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Capone | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fart | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Witkoff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IQ | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE | No | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crooked Joe / Sleepy Joe | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Billion 10+ times | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ETF / Exchange Traded Fund | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ripple | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ethereum | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-the-digital-asset-summit-on-thursday · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP