Donald Trump: Rally, Aug 30, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Markets
18 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampon | Yes | 65%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border Czar | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cemetery | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Colorado | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Alien 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| France | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hispanic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pocahontas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zuckerberg/Zuck | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jesus | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 25+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pavel Durov | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP