Donald Trump: Press conference, Feb 4, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during press conference with Netanyahu?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Somalia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Missile defense shield | No | 64%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Iron Dome | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Syria | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 16%n=55 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-press-conference-with-netanyahu · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP