Donald Trump: Keynote, May 14, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Gulf Leaders Summit on May 14?
Markets
19 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Friendship | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Historic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Turkey | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hostage | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| King | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force One | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Arabian Gulf | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economic Development | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Egypt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Heritage | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 43%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| God 5+ times | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Benjamin / Netanyahu | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 19%n=88 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-gulf-leaders-summit-on-may-14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP