Donald Trump: Episode, Sep 4, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?
Markets
17 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border Czar | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Communism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afghanistan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hamas | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Union | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal immigration | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gang | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mail-in | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto | No | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-hannity-town-hall · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP