Donald Trump: Debate, Sep 10, 2024
Polymarket What will Kamala and Trump both say at the debate?
Markets
9 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 5+ times | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tip | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-kamala-and-trump-both-say-at-the-debate · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP