Will Zohran Mamdani say “Trump”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Trump” at 7 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 4, 2025 (23%), most recently on Jan 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=31, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. No keynotes among them yet.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 73¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Zohran Mamdani
Trump
- Probability
- 25% · n=31
- Settled
- 7/31 (23%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
But I did have one more follow-up question about this, because President Trump has also followed this model that the city seems to be following,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…the past two hours, I have been on the phone with President Trump and Secretary Mullin negotiating the release of the man ICE agents shot.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 31 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Trump |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Trump |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Zohran Mamdani say “Trump”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Trump” at 7 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 4, 2025 (23%), most recently on Jan 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Trump” next time?
- 25%, from settlement history (n=31). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Zohran Mamdani: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/zohran-mamdani/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP