Zohran Mamdani: Press conference, Apr 7, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his Public Health Announcement?
Markets
11 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 65%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | Yes | 30%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 62%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Pollution / Pollutant | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 46%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Hochul | No | 46%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 45%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 26%n=27 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26APR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP