Zohran Mamdani: Rally, Apr 12, 2026
At the rally on Apr 12, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said 10 of the 41 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 18 of 18 checked settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
41 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 18 of 18- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 64%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 37%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 5+ times | Yes | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | – | – | – | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| One Percent 2+ times | Yes | – | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | – | – | – | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Twitch / Facebook | Yes | – | – | – | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | – | – | – | 33%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | – | – | – | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Revolution / Revolutionary | No | – | – | – | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Kathy / Hochul | No | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Snow / Blizzard | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | – | – | – | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Hochul | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 10+ times | No | – | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare / Health care 6+ times | No | – | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | – | – | – | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | – | – | – | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordability | No | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | No | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ripoff / Rip Off | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Childcare | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Bipartisan | No | – | – | – | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | – | – | 24%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | – | – | – | 23%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | – | – | – | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · Office of the Mayor of the City of New York (nyc.gov) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
…union. And from the Met to the newsroom, the warehouse to the coffee shop, more and more New Yorkers are bargaining for their first contracts.
This moment demands nothing less. AI and robots are coming for human jobs. Worker protections are being eroded. There are companies that think that exploitation…
…Now, because when we talk about the importance of taking on the crisis of income inequality, we know that the most effective tool to do…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/zohran-mamdani:2026-04-12:rally-e70544 · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=zohran-mamdani:2026-04-12:rally-e70544 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP