Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Jan 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his next announcement?
Polymarket What will Zohran Mamdani say during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?
Markets
33 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home / Housing | Yes | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Taxi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Historic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Politics | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transit | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump / The President | Yes | 33%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 23%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Working People / Working Class | Yes | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 62%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Daycare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Hochul | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Eric / Adams | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Brothers and sisters | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Civic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Legacy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manhattan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shelter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 33%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 33%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | No | 29%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 26%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Token / Coin | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Subway / MTA | No | 20%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Maduro | No | 19%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Muslim | No | 17%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26FEB08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP