Zohran Mamdani: Press conference, Jan 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during the Press Conference?
Markets
14 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home / Housing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NYPD | Yes | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inequality / Crisis | Yes | 16%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Task Force | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Transparent / Transparency | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New Era | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | 24%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Subway | No | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26JAN08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP