Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Jan 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his next announcement?
Markets
14 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 58%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Adams / Previous Administration | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Delivery | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hochul / Governor | No | 42%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Accountable / Accountability | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Savings Officer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taxpayer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Waste | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 32%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Millionaire / Billionaire | No | 30%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 25%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26FEB22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP