Zohran Mamdani: Speech, Jan 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Zohran Mamdani say during his inauguration?
Markets
16 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Eric / Adams | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie / Sanders | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kathy / Hochul | Yes | 23%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery | No | 72%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Queens | No | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fascism / Fascist | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26JAN02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP