Zohran Mamdani: Speech, Nov 4, 2025
Polymarket What will Mamdani say during his victory speech?
Markets
18 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bus | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York / New Yorker 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jew / Jewish | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Muslim / Islam | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anti-semitic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cuomo 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Next Mayor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fascism / Fascist | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Halal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Subway | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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