Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Jan 15, 2026
In remarks on Jan 15, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said 3 of the 25 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 18 of 25 settlements. The transcript is searchable below (quotes of at most 25 words).
UpdatedMarkets
25 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 18 of 25- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tip / Fee | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 0 | 2 | ✗ | 28%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | No | 4 | 6 | ✗ | 71%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Queens / Manhattan / Brooklyn | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Civic | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Working People / Working Class | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safety | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 69%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 60%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Hochul | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Eric / Adams | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 35%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / The President | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 33%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| E-Bike / Moped | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Kathy / Hochul | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Subway / MTA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Subway / Transit | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Muslim | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · Office of the Mayor of the City of New York (nyc.gov) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
None of the listed words was said under the market rules.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/zohran-mamdani:2026-01-15:remarks-60a1ca · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=zohran-mamdani:2026-01-15:remarks-60a1ca · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP