Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Jan 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his next announcement?
Markets
15 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home / Housing | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| New Era | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inequality / Crisis | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Task Force | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Transparent / Transparency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Subway | No | 17%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | 16%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26FEB03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP