Christine Lagarde
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 31 word markets on Christine Lagarde’s appearances since 2025, on 29 different words.
History Wall
1–30 of 30, most settled first| Word | Oct 31 ’25conference | Feb 23 ’26latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recession | Settled no: Recession, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled no: Recession, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 26%n=2 from settlement history |
| United States / America | Settled yes: United States / America, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: United States / America, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Anchor / Anchored | Settled yes: Anchor / Anchored, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Anchor / Anchored, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Balance Sheet | Settled yes: Balance Sheet, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Balance Sheet, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | Settled yes: Bitcoin / Crypto, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Bitcoin / Crypto, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Credit | Settled yes: Credit, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Credit, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cut | Settled yes: Cut, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Cut, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Expectation | Settled yes: Expectation, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Expectation, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inflation | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Inflation, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Powell / Warsh | Not listed: Powell / Warsh, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Powell / Warsh, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Productivity | Settled yes: Productivity, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Productivity, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Projection | Settled yes: Projection, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Projection, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Stablecoin | Settled yes: Stablecoin, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Stablecoin, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Tariff, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff3+ times | Settled yes: Tariff (3+ times), Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Tariff (3+ times), Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tightening | Settled yes: Tightening, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Tightening, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Volatility | Settled yes: Volatility, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Volatility, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China | Not listed: China, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled no: China, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Covid | Settled no: Covid, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Covid, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Defense | Not listed: Defense, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled no: Defense, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Disinflationary | Settled no: Disinflationary, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Disinflationary, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas | Settled no: Oil / Gas, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gold | Settled no: Gold, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Gold, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Good Day | Settled no: Good Day, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Good Day, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Hike | Settled no: Hike, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Not listed: Hike, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Refund | Not listed: Refund, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled no: Refund, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trillion | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled no: Trillion, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Oct 31 ’25 conference | Settled no: Trump, Feb 23 ’26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Christine Lagarde say on Face the Nation? | no transcript | 11 | 3 yes · 8 no | – |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Press conferenceWhat will EU Central Bank President say during the Press Conference? | no transcript | 20 | 13 yes · 7 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Christine Lagarde: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/christine-lagarde (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/christine-lagarde · words: /api/v1/history?entity=christine-lagarde · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP