Michael Barr

Fed · Governors & presidentsPersonFederal ReserveHistory onlyUpdated Oct 25, 2026, 00:11 UTC

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As of Oct 25, 2026, Kalshi has settled 77 word markets on Michael Barr’s appearances since 2025, on 55 different words.

History Wall

1–40 of 55, most settled first · page 1 of 2

Michael Barr: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Oct 17 ’25speech	Mar 31 ’26panel	Apr 1speech	Apr 14keynote	Sep 23keynote	Sep 29latest	Last 6	Settled	Probability
AI / Artificial Intelligence	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 17 ’25 speech	NSettled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 1 speech	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 23 keynote	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 29 speech	3/475%	3/475%	70%n=4 from settlement history
Afford / Affordability / Affordable	–Not listed: Afford / Affordability / Affordable, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Afford / Affordability / Affordable, Mar 31 ’26 panel	NSettled no: Afford / Affordability / Affordable, Apr 1 speech	YSettled yes: Afford / Affordability / Affordable, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Afford / Affordability / Affordable, Sep 23 keynote	NSettled no: Afford / Affordability / Affordable, Sep 29 speech	2/450%	2/450%	28%n=4 from settlement history
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 17 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 1 speech	YSettled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 14 keynote	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 23 keynote	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 29 speech	1/425%	1/425%	25%n=4 from settlement history
Trumpnever said	–Not listed: Trump, Oct 17 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Trump, Apr 1 speech	NSettled no: Trump, Apr 14 keynote	NSettled no: Trump, Sep 23 keynote	NSettled no: Trump, Sep 29 speech	0/40%	0/40%	19%n=4 from settlement history
Bitcoin	YSettled yes: Bitcoin, Oct 17 ’25 speech	YSettled yes: Bitcoin, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Sep 29 speech	2/2100%	2/2100%	64%n=2 from settlement history
Labor / Employment / Unemployment	–Not listed: Labor / Employment / Unemployment, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Labor / Employment / Unemployment, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Labor / Employment / Unemployment, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Labor / Employment / Unemployment, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Labor / Employment / Unemployment, Sep 23 keynote	YSettled yes: Labor / Employment / Unemployment, Sep 29 speech	2/2100%	2/2100%	72%n=2 from settlement history
Inflation / Inflationary	–Not listed: Inflation / Inflationary, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Inflation / Inflationary, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Inflation / Inflationary, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Inflation / Inflationary, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Inflation / Inflationary, Sep 23 keynote	YSettled yes: Inflation / Inflationary, Sep 29 speech	2/2100%	2/2100%	72%n=2 from settlement history
Mortgage	–Not listed: Mortgage, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Mortgage, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Mortgage, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Mortgage, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Mortgage, Sep 23 keynote	YSettled yes: Mortgage, Sep 29 speech	2/2100%	2/2100%	72%n=2 from settlement history
Recession	–Not listed: Recession, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Recession, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Recession, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Recession, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Recession, Sep 23 keynote	YSettled yes: Recession, Sep 29 speech	2/2100%	2/2100%	72%n=2 from settlement history
Tariff	–Not listed: Tariff, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Tariff, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Tariff, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Tariff, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Tariff, Sep 23 keynote	YSettled yes: Tariff, Sep 29 speech	2/2100%	2/2100%	72%n=2 from settlement history
Blockchain	NSettled no: Blockchain, Oct 17 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Blockchain, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Blockchain, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Blockchain, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Blockchain, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Blockchain, Sep 29 speech	0/20%	0/20%	26%n=2 from settlement history
Financial Crisis	–Not listed: Financial Crisis, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Financial Crisis, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Financial Crisis, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Financial Crisis, Apr 14 keynote	NSettled no: Financial Crisis, Sep 23 keynote	NSettled no: Financial Crisis, Sep 29 speech	0/20%	0/20%	23%n=2 from settlement history
Iran	–Not listed: Iran, Oct 17 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Iran, Mar 31 ’26 panel	NSettled no: Iran, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Iran, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Iran, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Iran, Sep 29 speech	0/20%	0/20%	27%n=2 from settlement history
Iran / Iranian	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 1 speech	NSettled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 23 keynote	NSettled no: Iran / Iranian, Sep 29 speech	0/20%	0/20%	24%n=2 from settlement history
Bank / Banking	YSettled yes: Bank / Banking, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Sep 23 keynote	YSettled yes: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Broadband	–Not listed: Broadband, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Broadband, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Broadband, Apr 1 speech	YSettled yes: Broadband, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Broadband, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Broadband, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
CRA / Community Reinvestment Act	–Not listed: CRA / Community Reinvestment Act, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: CRA / Community Reinvestment Act, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: CRA / Community Reinvestment Act, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: CRA / Community Reinvestment Act, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: CRA / Community Reinvestment Act, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: CRA / Community Reinvestment Act, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Security / Cybersecurity	–Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Mar 31 ’26 panel	YSettled yes: Security / Cybersecurity, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Data Center	–Not listed: Data Center, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Data Center, Mar 31 ’26 panel	YSettled yes: Data Center, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Data Center, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Data Center, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Data Center, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Farm / Farmer	–Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Apr 1 speech	YSettled yes: Farm / Farmer, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Fintech	–Not listed: Fintech, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Fintech, Mar 31 ’26 panel	YSettled yes: Fintech, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Fintech, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Fintech, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Fintech, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Generative AI / GenAI	–Not listed: Generative AI / GenAI, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Generative AI / GenAI, Mar 31 ’26 panel	YSettled yes: Generative AI / GenAI, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Generative AI / GenAI, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Generative AI / GenAI, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Generative AI / GenAI, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Genius Act	YSettled yes: Genius Act, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Genius Act, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Genius Act, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Genius Act, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Genius Act, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Genius Act, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Homeless / Homelessness	–Not listed: Homeless / Homelessness, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Homeless / Homelessness, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Homeless / Homelessness, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Homeless / Homelessness, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Homeless / Homelessness, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Homeless / Homelessness, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Housing	–Not listed: Housing, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Housing, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Housing, Apr 1 speech	YSettled yes: Housing, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Housing, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Housing, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
KYC / Know Your Customer	YSettled yes: KYC / Know Your Customer, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: KYC / Know Your Customer, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: KYC / Know Your Customer, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: KYC / Know Your Customer, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: KYC / Know Your Customer, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: KYC / Know Your Customer, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Oil	–Not listed: Oil, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Oil, Mar 31 ’26 panel	YSettled yes: Oil, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Oil, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Oil, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Oil, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Zoning / Permit / Permitting	–Not listed: Zoning / Permit / Permitting, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Zoning / Permit / Permitting, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Zoning / Permit / Permitting, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Zoning / Permit / Permitting, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Zoning / Permit / Permitting, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Zoning / Permit / Permitting, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Productivity	–Not listed: Productivity, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Productivity, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Productivity, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Productivity, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Productivity, Sep 23 keynote	YSettled yes: Productivity, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Regulation / Regulatory / Regulator	YSettled yes: Regulation / Regulatory / Regulator, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory / Regulator, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory / Regulator, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory / Regulator, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory / Regulator, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory / Regulator, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Rent / Rental	–Not listed: Rent / Rental, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Rent / Rental, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Rent / Rental, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Rent / Rental, Apr 14 keynote	YSettled yes: Rent / Rental, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Rent / Rental, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Reserve	YSettled yes: Reserve, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Reserve, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Reserve, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Reserve, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Reserve, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Reserve, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Tokenized / Tokenization	–Not listed: Tokenized / Tokenization, Oct 17 ’25 speech	YSettled yes: Tokenized / Tokenization, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Tokenized / Tokenization, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Tokenized / Tokenization, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Tokenized / Tokenization, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Tokenized / Tokenization, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Treasury	–Not listed: Treasury, Oct 17 ’25 speech	YSettled yes: Treasury, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Treasury, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Treasury, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Treasury, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Treasury, Sep 29 speech	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Autonomous	–Not listed: Autonomous, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Autonomous, Mar 31 ’26 panel	NSettled no: Autonomous, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Autonomous, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Autonomous, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Autonomous, Sep 29 speech	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Balance Sheet	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Sep 23 keynote	NSettled no: Balance Sheet, Sep 29 speech	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
CBDC / Central Bank Digital Currency	NSettled no: CBDC / Central Bank Digital Currency, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: CBDC / Central Bank Digital Currency, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: CBDC / Central Bank Digital Currency, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: CBDC / Central Bank Digital Currency, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: CBDC / Central Bank Digital Currency, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: CBDC / Central Bank Digital Currency, Sep 29 speech	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ChatGPT / OpenAI	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Mar 31 ’26 panel	NSettled no: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Sep 29 speech	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Circle	NSettled no: Circle, Oct 17 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Circle, Mar 31 ’26 panel	–Not listed: Circle, Apr 1 speech	–Not listed: Circle, Apr 14 keynote	–Not listed: Circle, Sep 23 keynote	–Not listed: Circle, Sep 29 speech	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

More words (15 left)

Citeparrot.markets, “Michael Barr: mention market word history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/michael-barr (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/michael-barr · words: /api/v1/history?entity=michael-barr · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP