Michelle Bowman

Fed · Governors & presidentsPersonFederal ReserveHistory onlyUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 00:48 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 68 word markets on Michelle Bowman’s appearances since 2026, on 31 different words; most reliably said: “AI / Artificial Intelligence” (5 of 5).

History Wall

1–31 of 31, most settled first

Michelle Bowman: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Mar 20episode	Mar 31speech	Sep 18remarks	Oct 1remarks	Oct 6latest	Last 5	Settled	Probability
AI / Artificial Intelligenceevery time	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 31 speech	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 18 remarks	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 6 keynote	5/5100%	5/5100%	77%n=4 from settlement history
Leverage Ratio	YSettled yes: Leverage Ratio, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Leverage Ratio, Mar 31 speech	YSettled yes: Leverage Ratio, Sep 18 remarks	YSettled yes: Leverage Ratio, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Leverage Ratio, Oct 6 keynote	4/580%	4/580%	72%n=4 from settlement history
Basel III	–Not listed: Basel III, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Basel III, Mar 31 speech	YSettled yes: Basel III, Sep 18 remarks	YSettled yes: Basel III, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Basel III, Oct 6 keynote	3/475%	3/475%	39%n=4 from settlement history
SVB / Silicon Valley Bank	–Not listed: SVB / Silicon Valley Bank, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: SVB / Silicon Valley Bank, Mar 31 speech	YSettled yes: SVB / Silicon Valley Bank, Sep 18 remarks	NSettled no: SVB / Silicon Valley Bank, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: SVB / Silicon Valley Bank, Oct 6 keynote	3/475%	3/475%	69%n=4 from settlement history
Mortgage	YSettled yes: Mortgage, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Mortgage, Mar 31 speech	NSettled no: Mortgage, Sep 18 remarks	NSettled no: Mortgage, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Mortgage, Oct 6 keynote	2/450%	2/450%	22%n=3 from settlement history
Stress Test	–Not listed: Stress Test, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Stress Test, Mar 31 speech	YSettled yes: Stress Test, Sep 18 remarks	YSettled yes: Stress Test, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Stress Test, Oct 6 keynote	2/450%	2/450%	34%n=4 from settlement history
Recession	NSettled no: Recession, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Recession, Mar 31 speech	YSettled yes: Recession, Sep 18 remarks	NSettled no: Recession, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Recession, Oct 6 keynote	1/425%	1/425%	28%n=3 from settlement history
Transparency	–Not listed: Transparency, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Transparency, Mar 31 speech	YSettled yes: Transparency, Sep 18 remarks	YSettled yes: Transparency, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Transparency, Oct 6 keynote	3/3100%	3/3100%	75%n=3 from settlement history
Inflation	NSettled no: Inflation, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Inflation, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Inflation, Sep 18 remarks	YSettled yes: Inflation, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Inflation, Oct 6 keynote	2/367%	2/367%	72%n=2 from settlement history
Trump / President	–Not listed: Trump / President, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Trump / President, Mar 31 speech	NSettled no: Trump / President, Sep 18 remarks	YSettled yes: Trump / President, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Trump / President, Oct 6 keynote	2/367%	2/367%	67%n=3 from settlement history
Private Credit	–Not listed: Private Credit, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Private Credit, Mar 31 speech	YSettled yes: Private Credit, Sep 18 remarks	NSettled no: Private Credit, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Private Credit, Oct 6 keynote	1/333%	1/333%	28%n=3 from settlement history
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Mar 31 speech	NSettled no: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Sep 18 remarks	NSettled no: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Oct 6 keynote	0/30%	0/30%	20%n=3 from settlement history
Iran	YSettled yes: Iran, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Iran, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Iran, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Iran, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Iran, Oct 6 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Biden	NSettled no: Biden, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Biden, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Biden, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Biden, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Biden, Oct 6 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Budget / Deficit	–Not listed: Budget / Deficit, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Budget / Deficit, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Budget / Deficit, Sep 18 remarks	NSettled no: Budget / Deficit, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Budget / Deficit, Oct 6 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	23%n=2 from settlement history
Trump	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Trump, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Trump, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Trump, Oct 6 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Credit	–Not listed: Credit, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Credit, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Credit, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Credit, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Credit, Oct 6 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Merger	–Not listed: Merger, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Merger, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Merger, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Merger, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Merger, Oct 6 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Regulator / Regulation / Regulatory	–Not listed: Regulator / Regulation / Regulatory, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Regulator / Regulation / Regulatory, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Regulator / Regulation / Regulatory, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Regulator / Regulation / Regulatory, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Regulator / Regulation / Regulatory, Oct 6 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Crypto / Cryptocurrency	NSettled no: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–
Rate Cut / Cut Rate	NSettled no: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–
Cyber / Cybersecurity	–Not listed: Cyber / Cybersecurity, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Cyber / Cybersecurity, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Cyber / Cybersecurity, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Cyber / Cybersecurity, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Cyber / Cybersecurity, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Data Center	–Not listed: Data Center, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Data Center, Mar 31 speech	NSettled no: Data Center, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Data Center, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Data Center, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Deregulation	NSettled no: Deregulation, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Deregulation, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Deregulation, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Deregulation, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Deregulation, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–
Fannie / Freddie	NSettled no: Fannie / Freddie, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Fannie / Freddie, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Fannie / Freddie, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Fannie / Freddie, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Fannie / Freddie, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–
Oil	–Not listed: Oil, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Oil, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Oil, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Oil, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Oil, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Powell	NSettled no: Powell, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Powell, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Powell, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Powell, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Powell, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–
Productivity	–Not listed: Productivity, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Productivity, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Productivity, Sep 18 remarks	NSettled no: Productivity, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Productivity, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Rate Cut	–Not listed: Rate Cut, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Rate Cut, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Rate Cut, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Rate Cut, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Rate Cut, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Tariff	–Not listed: Tariff, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Tariff, Mar 31 speech	–Not listed: Tariff, Sep 18 remarks	–Not listed: Tariff, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Tariff, Oct 6 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Michelle Bowman: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/michelle-bowman (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/michelle-bowman · words: /api/v1/history?entity=michelle-bowman · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP