Stephen Miran

Fed · Governors & presidentsPersonFederal ReserveHistory onlyUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 00:48 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 24 word markets on Stephen Miran’s appearances since 2025, on 15 different words.

History Wall

1–15 of 15, most settled first

Stephen Miran: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Oct 16 ’25keynote	Nov 8latest	Last 2	Settled	Probability
Economy	YSettled yes: Economy, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	YSettled yes: Economy, Nov 8 keynote	2/2100%	2/2100%	66%n=2 from settlement history
Rate	YSettled yes: Rate, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	YSettled yes: Rate, Nov 8 keynote	2/2100%	2/2100%	66%n=2 from settlement history
Restrictive	YSettled yes: Restrictive, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Restrictive, Nov 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	44%n=2 from settlement history
Stock Market	YSettled yes: Stock Market, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Stock Market, Nov 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	44%n=2 from settlement history
Tariff	YSettled yes: Tariff, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Tariff, Nov 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	44%n=2 from settlement history
Trump	YSettled yes: Trump, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Trump, Nov 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	44%n=2 from settlement history
Fed Chair	NSettled no: Fed Chair, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Fed Chair, Nov 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	24%n=2 from settlement history
Powell	NSettled no: Powell, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Powell, Nov 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	24%n=2 from settlement history
Recession	NSettled no: Recession, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Recession, Nov 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	24%n=2 from settlement history
Cut	YSettled yes: Cut, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Cut, Nov 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Genius Act	–Not listed: Genius Act, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	YSettled yes: Genius Act, Nov 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Inflation	YSettled yes: Inflation, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Inflation, Nov 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Bitcoin	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Bitcoin, Nov 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Crypto / Bitcoin	NSettled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Nov 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Token / Tokenization	–Not listed: Token / Tokenization, Oct 16 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Token / Tokenization, Nov 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Stephen Miran: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/stephen-miran (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/stephen-miran · words: /api/v1/history?entity=stephen-miran · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP