Will Jerome Powell say “Recession”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Recession” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 4, 2025 (44%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

39%from settlement history only · n=9counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Jerome Powell

Recession

Probability
39% · n=9
Settled
4/9 (44%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, March 18, 2026 · Mar 18, 2026In transcript

…and ’23, and close to 100 percent of economists called for a recession, which didn’t happen. In fact, 2023 was a really strong year. So…

MATT EGANreporterFOMC press conference, September 17, 2025 · Sep 17, 2025 · 48:14In transcript

…this year by 2 points, the most since 2009 during the Great Recession. And delinquencies are high for car loans, personal loans, credit cards. How…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · settled no

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · settled no

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What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 10 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 31, 2026RecessionKalshiNo
Mar 30, 2026RecessionKalshiYes
Dec 2, 2025RecessionKalshiNo
Oct 15, 2025RecessionKalshiNo
Sep 23, 2025RecessionKalshiNo
Aug 22, 2025RecessionPolymarketYes
May 15, 2025RecessionPolymarketYes
May 15, 2025RecessionKalshiYes
Apr 16, 2025RecessionKalshiNo
Apr 4, 2025RecessionKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Recession”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Recession” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 4, 2025 (44%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Recession” next time?
39%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Recession’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/recession (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=recession · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP