Christopher Waller

Fed · Governors & presidentsPersonFederal ReserveHistory onlyUpdated Oct 23, 2026, 23:51 UTC

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As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 93 word markets on Christopher Waller’s appearances since 2025, on 43 different words; most reliably said: “Productivity” (4 of 5).

History Wall

1–40 of 43, most settled first · page 1 of 2

Christopher Waller: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Oct 16 ’25speech	Oct 22keynote	Nov 13keynote	May 19 ’26keynote	Sep 3interview	Oct 1remarks	Oct 8latest	Last 7	Settled	Probability
Inflation	YSettled yes: Inflation, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Inflation, Oct 22 keynote	NSettled no: Inflation, Nov 13 keynote	YSettled yes: Inflation, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Inflation, Sep 3 interview	NSettled no: Inflation, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Inflation, Oct 8 keynote	4/757%	4/757%	57%n=7 from settlement history
Monetary Policy	NSettled no: Monetary Policy, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Monetary Policy, Oct 22 keynote	NSettled no: Monetary Policy, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Monetary Policy, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Monetary Policy, Sep 3 interview	YSettled yes: Monetary Policy, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Monetary Policy, Oct 8 keynote	3/650%	3/650%	51%n=6 from settlement history
Productivity	YSettled yes: Productivity, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Productivity, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Productivity, Nov 13 keynote	NSettled no: Productivity, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Productivity, Sep 3 interview	YSettled yes: Productivity, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Productivity, Oct 8 keynote	4/580%	4/580%	58%n=5 from settlement history
AI / Artificial Intelligenceevery time	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Nov 13 keynote	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 3 interview	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 8 keynote	4/4100%	4/4100%	79%n=4 from settlement history
Labor / Jobevery time	–Not listed: Labor / Job, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Labor / Job, Oct 22 keynote	YSettled yes: Labor / Job, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Labor / Job, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Labor / Job, Sep 3 interview	YSettled yes: Labor / Job, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Labor / Job, Oct 8 keynote	4/4100%	4/4100%	77%n=4 from settlement history
Tariff	–Not listed: Tariff, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Tariff, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Tariff, Nov 13 keynote	YSettled yes: Tariff, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Tariff, Sep 3 interview	NSettled no: Tariff, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Tariff, Oct 8 keynote	3/475%	3/475%	72%n=4 from settlement history
Fraud	YSettled yes: Fraud, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Fraud, Oct 22 keynote	NSettled no: Fraud, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Fraud, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Fraud, Sep 3 interview	NSettled no: Fraud, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Fraud, Oct 8 keynote	1/425%	1/425%	24%n=4 from settlement history
Regulation / Regulatory	YSettled yes: Regulation / Regulatory, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Regulation / Regulatory, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory, Nov 13 keynote	YSettled yes: Regulation / Regulatory, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory, Oct 8 keynote	2/367%	2/367%	52%n=3 from settlement history
Stock Market	–Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Stock Market, Nov 13 keynote	NSettled no: Stock Market, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Stock Market, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Stock Market, Oct 8 keynote	2/367%	2/367%	54%n=3 from settlement history
Cybersecurity / Cyber Security	YSettled yes: Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, Oct 22 keynote	NSettled no: Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, Oct 8 keynote	1/333%	1/333%	27%n=3 from settlement history
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Nov 13 keynote	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 19 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 8 keynote	1/333%	1/333%	47%n=3 from settlement history
Stablecoin	–Not listed: Stablecoin, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Stablecoin, Oct 22 keynote	YSettled yes: Stablecoin, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Stablecoin, May 19 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Stablecoin, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Stablecoin, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Stablecoin, Oct 8 keynote	1/333%	1/333%	34%n=3 from settlement history
Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate	–Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate, Oct 8 keynote	2/2100%	2/2100%	70%n=2 from settlement history
Balance Sheet	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Balance Sheet, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Balance Sheet, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Balance Sheet, Oct 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	30%n=2 from settlement history
Crypto / Cryptocurrency	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 22 keynote	YSettled yes: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Nov 13 keynote	NSettled no: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	40%n=2 from settlement history
Efficiency	YSettled yes: Efficiency, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Efficiency, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Efficiency, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Efficiency, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Efficiency, Sep 3 interview	NSettled no: Efficiency, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Efficiency, Oct 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	28%n=2 from settlement history
Labor	YSettled yes: Labor, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Labor, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Labor, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Labor, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Labor, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Labor, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Labor, Oct 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	34%n=2 from settlement history
Warsh	–Not listed: Warsh, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Warsh, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Warsh, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Warsh, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Warsh, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Warsh, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Warsh, Oct 8 keynote	1/250%	1/250%	30%n=2 from settlement history
Automation	NSettled no: Automation, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Automation, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Automation, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Automation, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Automation, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Automation, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Automation, Oct 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	27%n=2 from settlement history
Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, May 19 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Oct 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	20%n=2 from settlement history
ChatGPT / Chat GPT	NSettled no: ChatGPT / Chat GPT, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: ChatGPT / Chat GPT, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: ChatGPT / Chat GPT, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: ChatGPT / Chat GPT, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: ChatGPT / Chat GPT, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: ChatGPT / Chat GPT, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: ChatGPT / Chat GPT, Oct 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	27%n=2 from settlement history
Genius Act	–Not listed: Genius Act, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Genius Act, Oct 22 keynote	NSettled no: Genius Act, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Genius Act, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Genius Act, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Genius Act, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Genius Act, Oct 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	23%n=2 from settlement history
Privacy	NSettled no: Privacy, Oct 16 ’25 speech	NSettled no: Privacy, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Privacy, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Privacy, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Privacy, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Privacy, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Privacy, Oct 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	27%n=2 from settlement history
Recession	–Not listed: Recession, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Recession, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Recession, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Recession, May 19 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Recession, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Recession, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Recession, Oct 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	20%n=2 from settlement history
Trump	–Not listed: Trump, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Trump, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Trump, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Trump, May 19 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Trump, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Trump, Oct 1 remarks	NSettled no: Trump, Oct 8 keynote	0/20%	0/20%	20%n=2 from settlement history
Bank / Banking	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Oct 16 ’25 speech	YSettled yes: Bank / Banking, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Bank / Banking, Oct 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Crypto / Bitcoin	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 16 ’25 speech	YSettled yes: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Bond Market	–Not listed: Bond Market, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Bond Market, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Bond Market, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Bond Market, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Bond Market, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Bond Market, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Bond Market, Oct 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Independent / Independence	–Not listed: Independent / Independence, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Independent / Independence, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Independent / Independence, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Independent / Independence, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Independent / Independence, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Independent / Independence, Oct 1 remarks	YSettled yes: Independent / Independence, Oct 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Innovation	YSettled yes: Innovation, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Innovation, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Innovation, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Innovation, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Innovation, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Innovation, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Innovation, Oct 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Two Percent	–Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Two Percent, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Two Percent, May 19 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Two Percent, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 8 keynote	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Automation / Autonomous	–Not listed: Automation / Autonomous, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Automation / Autonomous, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Automation / Autonomous, Nov 13 keynote	NSettled no: Automation / Autonomous, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Automation / Autonomous, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Automation / Autonomous, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Automation / Autonomous, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Bitcoin	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Oct 22 keynote	NSettled no: Bitcoin, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Bitcoin, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Blockchain	–Not listed: Blockchain, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Blockchain, Oct 22 keynote	NSettled no: Blockchain, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Blockchain, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Blockchain, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Blockchain, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Blockchain, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ChatGPT / OpenAI	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Sep 3 interview	NSettled no: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
China / Chinese	–Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: China / Chinese, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: China / Chinese, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: China / Chinese, Sep 3 interview	NSettled no: China / Chinese, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Rate Cut / Cut Rate	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Nov 13 keynote	NSettled no: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Data Center	–Not listed: Data Center, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Data Center, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Data Center, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: Data Center, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Data Center, Sep 3 interview	NSettled no: Data Center, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Data Center, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
GDP	–Not listed: GDP, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: GDP, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: GDP, Nov 13 keynote	–Not listed: GDP, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: GDP, Sep 3 interview	NSettled no: GDP, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: GDP, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Gold	–Not listed: Gold, Oct 16 ’25 speech	–Not listed: Gold, Oct 22 keynote	–Not listed: Gold, Nov 13 keynote	NSettled no: Gold, May 19 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Gold, Sep 3 interview	–Not listed: Gold, Oct 1 remarks	–Not listed: Gold, Oct 8 keynote	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

More words (3 left)

Citeparrot.markets, “Christopher Waller: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/christopher-waller (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/christopher-waller · words: /api/v1/history?entity=christopher-waller · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP