Will Jerome Powell say “Trump”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Trump” at any of the 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 8% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

8%from settlement history only · n=12counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=trump

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jerome Powell

Trump

Probability
8% · n=12
Settled
0/12 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

STEVE LIESMANreporterFOMC press conference, April 29, 2026 · Apr 29, 2026In transcript

…on the Board, you’re actually taking a political act and denying President Trump the majority of the Board, which, as President, he would have if…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

ELIZABETH SCHULZEreporterFOMC press conference, March 18, 2026 · Mar 18, 2026In transcript

Thanks much. Elizabeth Schulze with ABC News. President Trump says that oil prices and overall inflation will go down very rapidly as soon as the…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

EDWARD LAWRENCEreporterFOMC press conference, January 28, 2026 · Jan 28, 2026 · 17:08In transcript

If I could—if President Trump does pick a new Fed Chairman before May, what does that look like? How would you work with that person,…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

VICTORIA GUIDAreporterFOMC press conference, September 17, 2025 · Sep 17, 2025 · 22:51In transcript

…over the years, but as markets have questions about what exactly President Trump’s intentions are with the Fed, what would you point to as the…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, July 30, 2025 · Jul 30, 2025 · 1:22:15In transcript

…you saw it famously in the—in the—in the first Administration of President Trump, during those tariffs. Washing machines were tariffed, but, but, but dryers weren’t.…

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · settled no

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · settled no

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · settled no

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What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · settled no

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · settled no

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 12 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 31, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Mar 30, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Mar 19, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Dec 2, 2025TrumpKalshiNo
Oct 25, 2025TrumpKalshiNo
Oct 15, 2025TrumpKalshiNo
Oct 14, 2025TrumpPolymarketNo
Sep 23, 2025TrumpKalshiNo
Aug 24, 2025TrumpKalshiNo
Aug 22, 2025TrumpPolymarketNo
May 25, 2025TrumpPolymarketNo
Apr 4, 2025TrumpKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Trump”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Trump” at any of the 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 4, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Trump” next time?
8%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP