Will JD Vance say “ICE”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “ICE” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
ICE
- Probability
- 21% · n=6
- Settled
- 0/6 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…this is the headline. I'm just going to read it, "Outrage after ICE officer kills US citizen in Minneapolis." Well, that's one way to put…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “ICE”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “ICE” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 14, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “ICE” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘ICE’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/ice (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP