# JD Vance (jd-vance) · rally 2026-09-21 · 40 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP21 · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-his-rally-in-north-carolina · as_of 2026-10-25T07:22:46Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-09-21 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 rally transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP21 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of rally in Greensboro, North Carolina originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-his-rally-in-north-carolina (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.
# rows 1-31 of 40 by p · more: offset=31 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	K	44	33	0.75	nYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.69	hist	yes
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	1	KP	13	11	0.85	YnYYYYYnYY	5	0	0.68	hist	yes
God 3+ times	god#3	3	P	7	7	1	YYYYYYY	5	1	0.64	hist	no
Hell	hell	1	P	3	3	1	YYY	5	3	0.61	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	61	41	0.67	nnYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.6	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	KP	39	25	0.64	YnnYYYYnnY	5	3	0.55	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	KP	42	22	0.52	YYYYnYYnYY	5	3	0.55	hist	yes
Election	election	1	KP	33	17	0.52	nnYnYYYYYY	5	1	0.55	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	K	16	10	0.62	nYYYnYnYnY	5	2	0.54	hist	no
Border 5+ times	border#5	5	P	3	3	1	YYY	5	0	0.53	hist	yes
Radical	radical	1	P	1	1	1	Y	5	3	0.52	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	K	30	14	0.47	nnYnYYnYYY	5	3	0.51	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	K	19	13	0.68	YYYYYnnYnn	5	2	0.47	hist	no
Greenland	greenland	1	P	3	2	0.67	YYn	5	1	0.45	hist	no
Social Security	social security	1	KP	2	1	0.5	nY	5	2	0.44	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	K	21	8	0.38	nYnnnYYnnY	5	3	0.42	hist	yes
Small Business	small business	1	K	6	3	0.5	YnYnYn	5	1	0.41	hist	no
Invest / Invested / Investment	invest|invested|investment	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	5	3	0.4	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	K	27	12	0.44	YYnnYYnnnn	5	3	0.4	hist	no
Ass	ass	1	P	12	5	0.42	nnnYYnnYYn	5	0	0.4	hist	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	1	K	18	5	0.28	nYnnnYYnnY	5	1	0.4	hist	yes
California	california	1	K	21	11	0.52	YYnnnYnnYn	5	1	0.39	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	1	K	32	18	0.56	nnnnYnnYnn	5	0	0.36	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	32	11	0.34	nnnnYYnYnn	5	1	0.35	hist	no
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	1	K	9	3	0.33	nYnYnYnnn	5	4	0.33	hist	yes
Usha	usha	1	P	12	5	0.42	YYYYnnnYnn	5	2	0.32	hist	no
Food Stamp / SNAP	food stamp|snap	1	K	6	1	0.17	nnnnnY	5	2	0.31	hist	no
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	1	KP	1	0	0	n	5	2	0.31	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	K	3	0	0	nnn	5	1	0.3	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	K	11	2	0.18	nnYnYnnnnn	5	0	0.28	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	34	7	0.21	YnnnYnnnnn	5	1	0.24	hist	no