Will JD Vance say “Border” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Border” 5+ times at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 27, 2024 (100%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 63% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Border 5+ times
- Probability
- 63% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…because of it. We said, if you got control of the southern border, we would see a substantial reduction in the number of people who…
…the president of the United States was elected to actually enforce the border for the first time in at least four years. So, here's the…
…and beaten, and in many cases, killed over our United States southern border. You also look at the inhumane treatment at the hands of some…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | Border 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Border 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Border” 5+ times at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 27, 2024 (100%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Border 5+ times” next time?
- 63%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Border 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/border-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=border%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP