Will JD Vance say “Greenland”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Greenland” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 8, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Greenland
- Probability
- 39% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Secretary Rubio I believe is meeting with the leaders of Denmark and Greenland next week, I want to say it is, but maybe it's the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Greenland”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Greenland” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 8, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 9, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Greenland” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Greenland’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/greenland (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=greenland · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP