Will JD Vance say “Transgender”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Transgender” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 22% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Transgender
- Probability
- 22% · n=5
- Settled
- 0/5 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Transgender |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 18, 2026 | Transgender | Kalshi | No |
| May 16, 2026 | Transgender | Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | Transgender | Kalshi | No |
| May 5, 2026 | Transgender | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Transgender | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Transgender”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Transgender” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 21, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Transgender” next time?
- 22%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Transgender’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/transgender (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=transgender · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP