Will JD Vance say “Family”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Family” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Family
- Probability
- 66% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that stuff at a record level, and that's because of the working families tax cuts, because we invested in people who are building and making…
…end up having desperate refugees or desperate people who can't feed their families trying to flood into our country. We want the people of Cuba…
…personally? No. Is a dollar of this money going to Donald Trump's family? No. The people that would get the money are people some of…
…them, sometimes they go to their place of residence and harass their families. This is classic terrorism and we cannot say that when — when…
…are not just numbers and statistics. These are real Americans who have families at home. I saw some Democrat members today saying they're still going…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Family”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Family” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Family” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Family’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/family (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=family · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP