Will JD Vance say “Uranium”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Uranium” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 press briefings we have transcripts for (Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Uranium
- Probability
- 46% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 5 press briefings
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the technical talks, the nuclear talks. How do you destroy this highly-enriched uranium -- all that stuff that you really just have to get into…
So first, on the Russia taking possession of the enriched uranium, look, these things are being discussed through negotiation. That is not currently our plan.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Uranium |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 29, 2026 | Uranium | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| May 18, 2026 | Uranium | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 5, 2026 | Uranium | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Uranium | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Uranium | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Uranium | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Uranium | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Uranium”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Uranium” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Uranium” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Uranium’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/uranium (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=uranium · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP