Will JD Vance say “Campaign”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Campaign” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 14, 2026 (60%), most recently on May 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 60¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Campaign
- Probability
- 52% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…record high of about 9.5 percent. And it's funny, during the 2024 campaign, the president and I would say this is the highest inflation in…
…extremely effective at in destroying during the last three months of the campaign. All the president said yesterday is that of course region -- countries…
The option B is that we could restart the military campaign to continue to prosecute the case, to continue to try to achieve America's objectives,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Campaign |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 18, 2026 | Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 16, 2026 | Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| May 5, 2026 | Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Campaign | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Campaign”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Campaign” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 14, 2026 (60%), most recently on May 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Campaign” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Campaign’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/campaign (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=campaign · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP