# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2026-05-05 · 44 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY05 · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-remarks-in-des-moines · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-05 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY05 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of remarks at a manufacturing facility - Des Moines , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-remarks-in-des-moines (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during events in Des Moines scheduled for May 5, 2026.
# rows 1-33 of 44 by p · more: offset=33 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
American Dream	american dream	1	K	17	14	0.82	YYYYYYYnYY	2	0	0.65	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	K	15	11	0.73	nYnYYYnYYY	2	2	0.59	hist	yes
Family	family	1	P	3	3	1	YYY	2	1	0.58	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	30	22	0.73	YYnYYnnnYY	2	2	0.56	hist	yes
Abortion	abortion	1	P	3	3	1	YYY	2	0	0.55	hist	no
Worker	worker	1	P	2	2	1	YY	2	1	0.53	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	20	14	0.7	YYYYnYnnYn	2	2	0.52	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	K	15	9	0.6	YnnYnYnnYY	2	1	0.52	hist	yes
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	1	K	6	4	0.67	YYnYnY	2	1	0.51	hist	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	1	K	9	6	0.67	YYYYnnYnY	2	1	0.5	hist	yes
Usha	usha	1	K	7	4	0.57	nnYYYYn	2	0	0.49	hist	no
Campaign	campaign	1	K	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.43	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	K	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.43	hist	yes
SAVE Act / SAVE America	save act|save america	1	K	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.43	hist	no
Election	election	1	K	10	5	0.5	YnnYYnYnYn	2	0	0.43	hist	yes
China	china	1	P	14	6	0.43	nnYnnnYnYY	2	0	0.42	hist	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	KP	12	7	0.58	YYnnnYYnYn	2	0	0.4	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	2	0	0.4	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	K	13	6	0.46	nnYnnYnYYn	2	1	0.4	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	K	13	5	0.38	YnnnnYYnYn	2	1	0.4	hist	yes
Transgender	transgender	1	K	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.35	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	KP	21	7	0.33	nnYnnnYnYn	2	0	0.31	hist	yes
Uranium	uranium	1	K	3	1	0.33	nYn	2	0	0.31	hist	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	1	K	6	1	0.17	nnnnYn	2	0	0.26	hist	no
Free Speech / Freedom of Speech	free speech|freedom of speech	1	K	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.26	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	11	2	0.18	nnYnnYnnnn	2	0	0.23	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	K	2	0	0	nn	2	0	0.23	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	K	11	3	0.27	YYnnnnnnnn	2	1	0.22	hist	no
America First	america first	1	K	17	3	0.18	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.22	hist	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	K	5	0	0	nnnnn	2	0	0.17	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	K	21	3	0.14	nnnnnnYnnn	2	1	0.14	hist	no
Bilateral	bilateral	1	P	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	no
Bipartisan	bipartisan	1	P	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	no