Will Donald Trump say “Merry Christmas”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Merry Christmas” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 5, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 12, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Merry Christmas
- Probability
- 39% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | Merry Christmas |  Polymarket | No |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Merry Christmas | Polymarket | No |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Merry Christmas |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Merry Christmas | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Merry Christmas”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Merry Christmas” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 5, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 12, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Merry Christmas” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Merry Christmas’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/merry-christma (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=merry%20christma · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP