Will Donald Trump say “Department of War”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Department of War” at any of the 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 2, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Department of War
- Probability
- 32% · n=7
- Settled
- 0/7 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Department of Justice to work with DHS, Treasury, State and the Department of War to build out a single plan to dismantle organizations behind scam…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Department of War |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Department of War |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Department of War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Department of War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Department of War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Department of War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Department of War | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Department of War”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Department of War” at any of the 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 2, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Department of War” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Department of War’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/department-of-war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=department%20of%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP