Will Donald Trump say “Kristi / Noem”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Kristi / Noem” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (25%), most recently on Mar 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Kristi / Noem
- Probability
- 36% · n=8
- Settled
- 2/8 (25%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | Kristi / Noem |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Kristi / Noem | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Kristi / Noem |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Kristi / Noem | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Kristi / Noem | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Kristi / Noem | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Kristi / Noem | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Kristi / Noem | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Kristi/Noem | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Kristi / Noem”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Kristi / Noem” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (25%), most recently on Mar 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Kristi / Noem” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Kristi / Noem’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/kristi-or-noem (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=kristi%20%2F%20noem · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP